At the end of May 2023, economic forecasts in France and the EU raise questions
The pace of inflation is slowing, with energy prices and staple foodstuffs such as wheat, corn and sugar rising less steeply. According to the Banque de France, inflation should peak in the2nd quarter of 2023. For the time being, this landing is hardly visible to consumers, as manufacturers and distributors are still selling off their inventories, purchased at high prices.
Ultimately, while a fall in consumer prices is not yet on the agenda, smaller increases are expected on the shelves. In the medium term, French GDP growth forecasts remain sluggish. In the eurozone, the revised GDP for the first quarter of 2023 puts growth at... -0.1%. With a second consecutive quarter of decline, the Eurozone is technically in a recession that began in October 2022. Germany, the locomotive of the eurozone economy, saw its GDP fall by -0.3%, while France held up with +0.2%. According to the Banque de France, between April and June 2023, GDP will only grow by 0.1% compared to the first quarter. In other words, a sluggish economic dynamic, with inventories rising in the face of sluggish customer demand.
Insolvencies still on the rise
With almost 46,500 receiverships and direct judicial liquidations opened at the end of May 2023 over a sliding 12-month period, the number of claims is still rising sharply (+47.7% of entities concerned over one year). Although the number of insolvency proceedings is currently lower than in 2019, the social impact is becoming increasingly severe, with almost 163,000 salaried positions threatened, a pre-crisis level not seen for 10 years. This situation is the result of a sharp rise in the number of bankruptcy filings by SMEs (+66%) and ETIs (+43%). Added to this are the 1,300 safeguard procedures recorded over the last 12 months to the end of May 2023 (+47.2%).
Bakeries, restaurants and clothing stores in dire straits
From a sectoral point of view, nearly 54% of insolvencies were in the Building & Public Works, Consumer Services and Business Services sectors. However, one of the hardest-hit sectors is Food & Beverage, where the number of insolvencies rose by +76.7% year-on-year, mainly due to bakeries (+80%).
Personal Services also suffered, with an increase of +67.4% year-on-year, particularly in Tourism (+75%), with sharp rises recorded in traditional and fast-food catering. Finally, the Textile-Apparel-Leather sector has been heavily impacted by changing consumption patterns and trade-offs, with a +62% increase in the number of insolvencies. More specifically, the number of insolvencies rose by +79% in the Specialized Retail sector.
Significant increases in insolvency proceedings in Occitanie, Bretagne, Centre-Val de Loire and Nouvelle-Aquitaine
At the end of May 2023, over a sliding 12-month period, the three main metropolitan economic regions - Ile-de-France, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and PACA - accounted for just under half of all insolvencies in France (45%). However, it is not in these regions that the increases are greatest. In Occitanie, for example, the number of insolvencies rose by 59%. The region's consumer services, agri-food and transport & logistics businesses are particularly hard hit.
Brittany, with a +54% rise in the number of insolvencies, is also more affected. In this region, it is the food, distribution, consumer goods and household equipment sectors that are affected, with the number of procedures doubling over a sliding 12-month period to the end of May 2023. In the Centre-Val de Loire region, the number of insolvencies rose by almost 53%, driven by increases of over 70% in the Personal Services and Business Services sectors. Lastly, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, with a 51.7% rise in the number of insolvencies, is also particularly hard hit, with Personal Services and Agri-food recording increases of +80%.
